tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33866234205660348462024-02-20T00:18:20.752-08:00ForexUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3386623420566034846.post-32823744534520076202012-05-19T21:55:00.000-07:002012-05-19T21:55:02.542-07:00Smart Trade Batal<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3386623420566034846.post-66591326782271460662012-05-13T05:59:00.000-07:002012-05-13T05:59:18.131-07:00GBPUSD<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3386623420566034846.post-50239324810054507212012-05-11T00:06:00.000-07:002012-05-11T02:12:33.270-07:00Trade Bank<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3386623420566034846.post-29108021132219612442012-02-07T19:13:00.001-08:002012-02-07T19:13:03.276-08:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3386623420566034846.post-6866361070051241232011-11-24T23:16:00.001-08:002011-11-24T23:18:14.930-08:00Basic Fibonacci Trading.<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
by : Neal Hughes (FibMaster) http://www.fibmaster.com<br />
Thank you for requesting our my email lessons on Fibonacci trading.<br />
These lessons are appropriate for FOREX, Futures, Stocks, Minis, every<br />
liquid market instrument.<br />
<br />
I am a trader with over 20 years of experience trading the markets. Over the<br />
years I have has developed an entire trading methodology based on<br />
Fibonacci Analysis. In this series of free lessons, I highlight some of the<br />
techniques I have developed from my trading career.<br />
I wrote these lessons to demystify Fibonacci trading. When you finish these<br />
lessons you should be able to apply the Fib techniques to real world<br />
markets and understand their meaning to you the investor/trader.<br />
Fibonacci techniques are powerful, but they do require some study and<br />
practice. These lessons cover the basics to get you started. Once you have<br />
mastered the basics, you may want to study my more advanced video<br />
courses available here: Click here to order the advanced seminars.<br />
Be sure that you read and fully understand each lesson before moving on to<br />
the next one.<br />
Table of contents:<br />
Page 04 Lesson 1: Introduction<br />
Page 06 Lesson 2: The .382 Fibonacci ratio.<br />
Page 09 Lesson 3: The .618 Fibonacci ratio<br />
Lesson 1: Introduction<br />
Fibonacci is the basis of many trading methodologies, and many billions of<br />
dollars are traded every year based on Fibonacci techniques.<br />
We're not going to bore you with the history of Leonardo Pisan, Fibonacci,<br />
but it is interesting. So, when you have the time, take a look at the following<br />
link for some biographical info.<br />
http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Mathematicians/Fibonacci.html<br />
We do have to cover some ground before we can get to the charts.<br />
Fibonacci is best remembered for his Fibonacci sequence, which is the<br />
series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding<br />
numbers. 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55…<br />
What we are interested in is the ratio between these numbers: the Fibonacci<br />
ratios. By comparing the relationship between each number, and each<br />
alternate number, and even each number to the one four places to the right,<br />
we arrive at some fairly consistent ratios. The important ones are .236, .50,<br />
.382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and for good measure we<br />
include 1.00.... This can start to look complicated, but it really isn't.<br />
It turns out that the ratios are mathematical principles prevalent in nature<br />
around us, and is also in man-made objects. There are many interesting,<br />
entertaining, and poetic observations about Fibonacci numbers and ratios in<br />
the universe. Fibonacci numbers and ratios appear in ancient buildings, in<br />
plants, planets, molecules, the dimensions of human bodies, and of course<br />
rabbit populations.<br />
But of what use is all that to the intrepid trader?<br />
Traders usually study charts! Fibonacci ratios may be applied to the Price<br />
scale and also to the time scale of charts. Neal applies his Fibonacci<br />
analysis to the price scale, so his focus here will be on the price scale.<br />
Remember, prices never move in a straight line. When you look at any chart<br />
you will easily see the ebb and flow of a stock as its’ price advances and<br />
retraces. Stocks, Futures, Forex, Indices, all instruments which are liquid,<br />
will often retrace in Fibonacci proportions, and advance in Fibonacci<br />
proportions. Not always, and not precisely to the penny. But very often, and<br />
so close as to be truly amazing!<br />
These Fibonacci price-points can be calculated in advance, giving us the<br />
opportunity to predict possible market turning points. When the price<br />
reaches these predicted areas, we can watch for a profitable trade if the<br />
market behaves as we expect it to.<br />
There are many out there who seem determined to make Fibonacci as<br />
complex as possible, enveloping it mystery and secrecy, offering complex<br />
mathematical formulas, etc. Neal does just the opposite. He strips away all<br />
the hocus-pocus that surrounds Fibonacci analysis and shows you what is<br />
truly important.<br />
Neal believes in keeping it simple, and has gone to great lengths to make<br />
Fibonacci trading easily understandable. His "Introduction to Fibonacci<br />
Trading" video seminar is easy to understand, and shows you how<br />
Fibonacci techniques are applied to actual charts. If you're interested in<br />
trading with Fibonacci, this video is the place to start. Download it to your<br />
computer today: Click here to order the seminar.<br />
Neal Hughes uses Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help<br />
determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss<br />
levels. His complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, inperson<br />
seminars. For more details, see the following web page: Click for<br />
details<br />
OK, that’s it for Neal’s short introduction. Next time he will jump into some<br />
charts and show you just how amazing Fibonacci analysis is and how you,<br />
as a trader, can profit from it.<br />
Lesson 2: The .382 Fibonacci ratio.<br />
This is the second of our free email lessons on Fibonacci trading, by Neal<br />
Hughes, (FibMaster), at http://www.fibmaster.com. Neal is a trader with over<br />
20 years of experience trading the markets. He has developed an entire<br />
trading methodology based on Fibonacci Analysis. In this series of free<br />
lessons, he highlights some of the techniques he has developed from his<br />
successful trading career.<br />
In the last lesson, Neal talked about the many Fibonacci ratios. In this<br />
lesson he will focus on the .382 ratio and what it means to you as a trader.<br />
Let’s look at Microsoft weekly chart. In this chart MSFT made a high of<br />
(approximately) $59.97 in December of 1999. After that, it moved down to<br />
make a low of $30.19 in May of 2000. The down move was $29.78 ($59.97-<br />
$30.19), quite a substantial amount.<br />
Most charting software packages include Fibonacci ratios, but you should<br />
know how to calculate them yourself.<br />
Here’s how you calculate the Fibonacci ratio. You multiply the down move of<br />
$29.78 by the .382 Fibonacci ratio which equals $11.37. So 38.2% of<br />
$29.78 is $11.37. Now add that $11.37 to the current low of $30.20 and you<br />
get $41.57.<br />
In other words, if MSFT were to rally 38.2% of the down-move it would<br />
reach $41.57 ($11.37+$30.20). (We are using rounded numbers in these<br />
calculations). The chart above calculates it to be $41.564. We don't need<br />
that degree of accuracy!<br />
Move forward in time and see what happens. Several weeks later, MSFT<br />
rallied and resisted right at that .382 Fibonacci level !!<br />
What does this mean to you, the trader? It means you will know ahead of<br />
time there will be probable resistance at that $41.57 level.<br />
To review, the steps involved are:<br />
1) Calculate the total value of a significant price-move (high to low, or viceversa).<br />
2) Calculate a Fibonacci retracement (in this case .382) of the prior move.<br />
3) Look for price to confirm, by resisting (or support in an up-move) near<br />
that predicted retracement area.<br />
There are many ways to trade this chart, and we will get to that in future<br />
lessons.<br />
Neal believes in keeping it simple, and has gone to great lengths to make<br />
Fibonacci trading easily understandable. His "Introduction to Fibonacci<br />
Trading" video seminar is easy to understand, and shows you how<br />
Fibonacci techniques are applied to actual charts. If you're interested in<br />
trading with Fibonacci, this video is the place to start. Download it to your<br />
computer today: Click to order seminar.<br />
Neal Hughes uses Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help<br />
determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss<br />
levels. His complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, inperson<br />
seminars, and via his real-time on-line chat facility. For more details,<br />
see the following web page: Click for details.<br />
In the next lesson Neal will focus on another important Fibonacci<br />
retracement level, the .618.<br />
Lesson 3: The .618 Fibonacci ratio<br />
This is the third of our free email lessons on Fibonacci trading, by Neal<br />
Hughes, (FibMaster), at http://www.fibmaster.com. Neal is a professional<br />
trader with over 20 years of experience trading the markets. He has<br />
developed an entire trading methodology based on Fibonacci Analysis. In<br />
this series of free lessons, he highlights some of the techniques he has<br />
developed from his successful trading career.<br />
In the last lesson Neal focused on the .382 Fibonacci ratio. In this lesson he<br />
will look at the .618 ratio. Let’s look at Microsoft daily chart.<br />
There was a high in July 2000 of $41.44 and a subsequent low in October<br />
2000 of $24.22, a down move of $17.22.<br />
Here’s the math: multiply the down move of $17.22 by the Fibonacci ratio of<br />
.618 and you get $10.64. Now add that $10.64 to the low of $24.22 and you<br />
get $34.86. (Again, most charting packages do these calculations for you).<br />
In November, Microsoft resisted right at that level !! Pretty amazing, eh?<br />
So you now know two of the Fib levels Neal Hughes considers important:<br />
the .382 and the .618. But beware, you shouldn’t blindly enter the market at<br />
these Fibonacci levels.<br />
For example, look back on this chart and notice how the market behaved at<br />
the .382 level (30.80 area). Initially the market spiked through the .382 level,<br />
then fell back to it (late October). We cannot expect a chart to retrace at<br />
every Fib level, but we can expect some support/resistance as<br />
buyers/sellers enter the market at these levels. Also, we can't always predict<br />
whether the market will actually turn at any particular level.<br />
Fibonacci techniques are used to alert you to a possible trade, if that price<br />
level does cause support or resistance. These techniques are not used as a<br />
trigger for entry. Other indicators are used in conjunction with Fibonacci<br />
studies to provide higher-probability entries.<br />
It is those higher-probability trades that Neal Hughes is interested in and will<br />
cover in his future lessons.<br />
Important notes from this lesson:<br />
1) There are several Fib levels.<br />
2) It takes some skill to determine which Fib level is likely to cause the<br />
market to turn.<br />
3) There are some techniques to help you determine where a market is<br />
more likely to turn.<br />
4) Do not blindly anticipate a market turn at a Fib level.<br />
There are many ways to trade this chart, and we will get to that in future<br />
lessons.<br />
Neal believes in keeping it simple, and has gone to great lengths to make<br />
Fibonacci trading easily understandable. His "Introduction to Fibonacci<br />
Trading" video seminar is easy to understand, and shows you how<br />
Fibonacci techniques are applied to actual charts. If you're interested in<br />
trading with Fibonacci, this video is the place to start. Download it to your<br />
computer today: Click to order seminar.<br />
Neal Hughes uses Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help<br />
determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss<br />
levels. His complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, inperson<br />
seminars, and via his real-time on-line chat facility. For more details,<br />
see the following web page: Click for details.<br />
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3386623420566034846.post-22355442298598296922011-11-24T23:10:00.001-08:002011-11-24T23:13:54.265-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
This is a tutorial about a Fibonacci Extension method that can be used to set very precise take profit levels and to determine Support and Resistance levels.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
In this tutorial I use screen shots from VT trader. It is free to use with a demo account. The grey screenshots are from Tradestation.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The setup in popular charting tools like Tradestation or e-signal is very similar.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
As an alternative you can download my MS Excel based Fibonacci Calculator http://www.aergo.ch/download/webFIBOcalc-v2.zip and use a free chart at www.netdania.com</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
My preferred timeframe for this method is the 1h chart, but it is working on any timeframe.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Step by Step Tutorial</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
To use Fibonacci you must know the High, Low and the retracement depth of a swing.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Sequence in a Upswing: Low -> High -> Retracement</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Sequence in a Downswing: High -> Low -> Retracement</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The next screenshots shows what we are looking for.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Important: Highs and Lows ARE ALWAYS the peaks, for retracements you can choice if you take the peak or the candle body as the reference.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
To draw the Fibonacci lines press the button left to the arrow. Then click on a Swing High, hold the left-mouse button, move the cursor to the low and release the mouse-button.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
After that double click on a Fibo line to open the properties and enter the values from the next screenshot. Set it as default to have it in all charts.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The rule & Levels</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Based on the depth of the retracement I set my Take profit levels on the related Extension level.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Retracement Level Take Profit Extension</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
61.8% 176.4%</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
50 or 38.2% 161.8%</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
26.4% 127.2%</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The 233% Extension is strong level as well, that’s why I always include it into my charts.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Example: If the price retraces to the 61.8% Level I set my main Take Profit level near the 176.4% Extension (a little bit below in an Upswing and a bit above in a Downswing).</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
In the above example the retracement low-peak was at the 50% level but the candle closed above the 61.8% level. In this case you can choice if you now place your take profit Levels at the 176.4% or the 161.8% level.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Lets take a look into the following swing.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Retracement to the 38.2% Swing = Master Extension level = 161.8% but it is always a good idea to take part profits on the 127.2% level.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
For a Downswing you have to draw the Fibo from Low to High.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Another downswing example in Tradestation:</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Clustering the Fibos</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
You properly noted that the Extensions are often acting as Support and Resistance levels for further price action.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
A cluster appears when multiple extensions and/or retracement levels from other swings are near each other, these levels are heavy barriers.</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
I hope you liked this tutorial, further examples are included in the manual which comes with our Excel based Fibonacci Calculator downloadable here: http://www.aergo.ch/download/webFIBOcalc-v2.zip</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Author: Dave @ aergo.ch</div>
</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0